Shortly after the results of the presidential election held on November 5, 2024, the results clearly showed an overwhelming conclusion and, in the end, the victory of the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, who officially becomes the 47th President of the United States on January 20, 2025.
Upon entering the political scene of the United States, Donald Trump introduced a new approach to addressing his policies and communicating with voters and his supporters. Although he showed interest in politics throughout his life, Donald Trump never held a political office until January 20, 2017, when he officially became President of the United States. It is interesting to note that this makes Donald Trump one of only two presidents in U.S. history, alongside Zachary Taylor, who served as the 12th President between 1849 and 1850, who had no prior political or administrative experience before becoming president. Therefore, Donald Trump's official political biography is still very short but quite remarkable: two terms as president. His biography is certainly one of the most exciting to read.
The foreign policy of the Trump administration has certainly attracted significant attention from both academic circles and the general public. Trump's unpredictable and more freewheeling style in foreign policy is a distinguishing feature, more so than with other U.S. presidents. It was also one of the key issues he covered during his campaign for the presidential election this year. The world is different in several important ways compared to the period between 2016 and 2020.
Foreign policy traditionally plays a lesser role in determining voter preferences in the U.S., where issues like the economy, inflation, taxes, and security are more prominent. However, in this year's election, foreign policy played a much stronger role than before. Trump connected issues of security, particularly economic security and border security, with foreign policy throughout his campaign. He emphasized national security in a speech on September 29, 2017, stating, "We cannot have national security without economic security." The next four years will show whether this connection was justified.
What Do We Know?
Donald Trump is not a fan of multilateralism. His approach is, in theory, bipolar in the context of the existence of an "other" opposed to the U.S., which is not just one country or international legal entity. In this context, Trump strengthened unilateral tools in the hope that they would stand out more and more in international relations. In practice, his withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, the Iran Nuclear Deal, the World Health Organization, UNESCO, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the UN Global Migration Compact, arms control treaties, and the North American Free Trade Agreement (replaced by USMCA during his administration) all confirm his animosity toward multilateralism, at least in the forms in which it is currently defined and discussed.
What Will We Still Learn?
Will Donald Trump continue down the same path, considering that the Biden administration has rejoined some of the agreements and organizations Trump withdrew from, such as the Paris Agreement, the WHO, and the UN Migration Pact? The creation of the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework" aims to redefine relations covered by the earlier Free Trade Agreement – the Trans-Pacific Partnership. A particularly interesting case is the World Health Organization, which the U.S. left under Trump's administration due to its poor handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as accusations that it was, as Trump put it, a "puppet of China." Now that the pandemic is behind us, it remains to be seen whether Trump's strategy and approach toward these and similar agreements and organizations will change under a new administration.
What Else Do We Know?
We know that during his previous administration and throughout his campaign for this year’s election, Donald Trump promoted his doctrine of "peace through strength." After Ronald Reagan, Donald Trump is the only U.S. president who did not start a military conflict. The United States certainly has the capacity to implement such a doctrine, and with Trump's dominant personality traits, it certainly sounds appealing. However, there are other powerful countries in the world with leaders who also have dominant personality traits.
We also know that Donald Trump is an ally of Israel. The relocation of the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem is a key example of this. This move was something on what not much effort was put in since 1995 when Congress passed the "Jerusalem Embassy Act." Among other things, Trump's departure from UNESCO was triggered by the organization's stance against Israel. On June 27, 2024, Trump stated that President Biden "should let Israel finish the job." On the other hand, there is a significant possibility of deepening the "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran. The death of General Qasem Soleimani on January 3, 2020, raised tensions between the two countries to a historic high. The mention of Iran in the context of Trump's relationship with Israel is crucial, as there is an undeniable link between Hamas and Hezbollah, which can be seen as Iran's proxy forces. On the other hand, Trump stated during his first presidential campaign that the U.S. "destabilized the Middle East," and during this year's campaign, he advocated for peace in the region.
What Will We Learn?
Israel has little time before Donald Trump officially becomes the new president of the U.S. We will find out whether Trump will be able to bring about a ceasefire in Gaza and the northern borders of Israel, which has claimed tens of thousands of lives, and whether strong support for Israel will be directed toward strengthening normalization with Saudi Arabia or directly aimed against Iran, which faces a negative scenario in both cases.
What Do We Also Know?
On February 24, 2022, Russia began a military operation in Ukraine. Trump quickly condemned this act, as well as the Biden administration's handling of the situation. Throughout his campaign, Trump emphasized that this conflict could be ended within 24 hours, and that he could do so on the first day in office. He also met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, but he also highlighted his good personal relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin during his first administration over times. Recently, Trump announced that retired General Keith Kellogg would be his special envoy for the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
When he wanted to, Trump knew how to calm tensions, as demonstrated by his correct relationship with Vladimir Putin, and more notably, his meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
What will we find out?
We will find out whether the appointment of a special envoy for the Russia-Ukraine conflict means that Trump is not expecting quick negotiations or a rapid ceasefire, or if, at least, a ceasefire will be announced in the coming days. This would certainly show that Trump has fulfilled his pre-election promise, and that the role of the special envoy will be more about mediation and overseeing the implementation of negotiated agreements.
What else do we know?
NATO. During his first term, Donald Trump did not have a favorable stance towards NATO. On several occasions between 2017 and 2019, he publicly criticized NATO members for what he claimed was their failure to meet alliance obligations. The issue he most frequently raised was the failure to meet the 2% GDP defense spending standard. At the time of Trump's first criticisms of NATO as president, only 5 of the current 31 members were adhering to the "2%" standard. He particularly criticized Germany for not meeting this standard, but also for actions that, according to him, contributed to the enrichment of Russia. Today, it is forecasted that 23 out of 31 members will meet this standard by the end of 2024. This situation within NATO certainly benefits Donald Trump, who is now in a position to diplomatically say "didn’t I tell you so?"—primarily due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The increase in adherence to the "2%" standard is certainly not a direct consequence of Trump's pressure on NATO, but it cannot be dismissed lightly, especially considering that there were discussions about the U.S. potentially leaving NATO during Trump's tenure.
What will we soon find out?
We will soon learn whether Trump’s role in NATO will become stronger than before, and whether he will be gentler toward the alliance this time. In the near future, we can expect that Europe will play a more significant role within NATO than it has in the past. The U.S. is practically positioned as the protector of the alliance itself, and, as Tim Marshall might poetically put it, geography gives Europe a strategic advantage, while the U.S. might gain an additional obligation. On the other hand, Trump’s choice of Pat Hegseth as Secretary of Defense suggests that his future administration will constantly remind NATO members of the importance of the U.S. not only within the alliance but also in the entire Western Hemisphere. On November 25, 2024, Hegseth openly criticized the UN and Turkey, reminding many NATO members that the alliance's operations extend beyond Europe, aligning with his stance that supporting America also means supporting Israel.
What do we know, but not enough yet?
As of the writing of this text, the value of one Bitcoin is $94,719, and we can certainly say that we are living in a time of great reform in the financial system as we know it. What’s interesting is that Donald Trump has changed his stance on cryptocurrencies. On July 11, 2019, he stated that he was "not a fan of Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies." However, on November 27, 2024, at a Bitcoin conference, he declared that he would "make Bitcoin great again" and that "the U.S. will become the crypto capital, and Bitcoin will be the world’s superpower." The issue of a common BRICS currency is also currently relevant, an initiative that Trump has publicly criticized, as well as de-dollarisation process, while also sending a message that these initiatives would have consequences. The digitalization of the financial system undoubtedly carries foreign policy implications, and we are already witnessing how the implementation of digital currencies is becoming everyday reality for countries around the world.
What will only those who closely follow and invest know before the rest of the world finds out?
There is a great chance that in the next few years, we will witness the full implementation of blockchain technology in the daily lives of consumers. Let’s not forget that the first digital currency was actually E-Gold from 1996, which was shut down by the U.S. government in 2008, the same year Bitcoin was founded. The network of E-Gold users had millions of members. The question is not whether, but when the whole world will become aware of this financial change. Many who invest and follow the rise of cryptocurrencies see other important players in this space. The U.S., led by Donald Trump, along with his close associate Elon Musk, is definitely opening a new chapter in this regard.
And finally, what do we know?
Under Donald Trump, the U.S. was far more directly involved in the process of normalizing relations between Belgrade and the provisional institutions in Pristina. The economic normalization agreements, known as the Washington Agreements, directly show that Trump’s administration implements the concept of economic security in foreign policy as a way to align the interests of conflicting sides. We also know that relations between the Republic of Serbia and the United States have seen a slight, but certainly recognizable improvement, and we can expect this trend to continue in the near future. The Serbian-American Friendship Congress, led by Mr. Vladimir Marinković, has made a serious contribution to improving these bilateral relations in recent years. The past year saw exceptionally intense and dedicated cooperation with the U.S. Embassy in Serbia, Ambassador Christopher Hill, and his team, who recognized the importance of the Congress’s mission and always provided unconditional support for all actions carried out. Through organizing important forums on topics such as economy, culture, and politics, facilitating networking among entrepreneurs and the creation of important partnerships, exploring American society and culture, promoting American values of freedom, independence, and entrepreneurship, and informing the public about the benefits of improving bilateral relations with the U.S., the Congress has proven that improving relations between our two countries is based on a rational consideration of the historical and social context.
What lies ahead?
The situation in Kosovo and Metohija is different now compared to the Trump administration. Richard Grenell, Trump’s former special envoy for normalizing relations between Belgrade and Pristina, who may return to the Balkans, stated that Trump’s administration could guarantee progress in the normalization process. What we can expect is that the economy might not be the primary unifier in negotiations, but rather the everyday struggle of Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija with violations of basic, and nearly all human rights. I would like to freely express that the violation of these human rights is the mildest possible description of the terror that Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija are living under. The Serbian-American Friendship Congress has highlighted the catastrophic living conditions of Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija to our partners in the U.S., and we are confident that this message has reached those who have the power to influence change.
Additionally, due to the strong support Serbs have shown Trump in the United States, we can truly expect a visit from President Trump to our country in this term. This support has been alluded to by many in his close establishment, including Grenell and people like Rod Blagojevich, whose inspirational story was recognized by Donald Trump himself. With this visit, Trump would be opening a new chapter in the history of Serbian-American relations with every step made in the capital of Serbia, which already includes bright moments in the history of all mankind and obligates us to improve them further.
Trump’s visit to Serbia would be the highest diplomatic visit to our country from American officials since the period of Yugoslavia, following the visits of Vice President Joe Biden to Serbia in 2009 and 2016.
Novak Đurić
President, Youth Caucus
Serbian-American Friendship Congress
